The contribution of the civil aviation services market in local, regional and world economy It consists of the conjugate multiplication effect of the sectors of the economy. These are air transport (passenger and cargo air transportation), aviation industry (aircraft construction, engine building, component manufacturing), maintenance and repair. In addition, it includes airfield farms, passenger service at airports, leasing operations, security of flights, etc.
According to estimates of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the contribution of this sector to the world economy is about 3 trillion dollars, which is equivalent to 8% of world GDP.
In international transport, the dominant position is occupied by passenger transportation. They account for about 70% of all transportation, while freight transportation is 30%.
The number of people employed in the field of air services is about 25 million people, most of which are concentrated in companies carrying out international aviation transport.
Table 2. Basic performance indicators of the Aviation Industry
(2001-2009)
Source: Yata. FINANTIAL FORECAST. 2010. March.
Despite the increase in passengers and cargo transported, in the air transportation industry is one of the lowest rates of profit. This is due to a high level of competitive struggle. Air transportation is largely monopolies on air navigation services, monopolies of airports, fuel and fueling companies, service companies, insurers. Therefore, in order not to reduce operational profit, the airline is increasing the volume of air transportation, which has increased over the past decade, one and a half times, which amounted to 4300 billion passenger km in 2008.
The leaders in the world passenger traffic carried out in all countries are US airlines, EU countries, Japan and China.
As for transportation by region, then 31% of the total transportation (passenger, cargo, postal) was made by airlines of North America, 29% - Asia and the Pacific region, 28% of European airlines, 6% - Middle East airlines, 4% - Latin America and the Caribbean and 2% - African airlines.
Table 3. Rating of passenger traffic airlines (2010) 
Source: Airline Business. 2010. Aug. P. 28.
Increasing internationalization of post-industrial society leads to a sharp increase in the intercountry movement of people, goods and services. By 2020, the volume of aviation traffic in the world, according to forecasts of leading aviation firms, will increase to 7000-9000 billion passengers. -Mm against 3000 billion pass. -Mm at the end of the XX century.
To implement the predicted volume of air transport services, it is planned to significantly increase the park of aircraft. In the early 2000s, the park of passenger aircraft numbered 12 thousand units. (The entire park is 13.7 thousand units). By 2008, he amounted to 21 thousand units., And according to forecasts of leading air carriers, will reach 36 thousand by 2020. aircraft. The new generation aircraft are economical, comfortable, speed - will allow direct passenger transportation almost anywhere in the world. This is a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the next-generation wide-body aircraft A 350 XWB (Airbus), Israeli G250, created by Gulf Stream Aerospace, is the fastest jet aircraft in the Super-MidSize class, Airbus A400M military transport.
The world fleet of air transport over the past three decades has doubled every 10 years and currently has 1700 units. (For comparison: in 1970 - less than 100). By 2020, he can make up 3200 aircraft.
Progress in the creation of more economical aircraft, the introduction of technical innovations, the use of logistics management schemes will help reduce operating costs and will reduce tariffs for international transportation of passengers.
One of the most effective methods for increasing the competitiveness of airline is income management.
The key moment of the income management program is the ability to get the maximum income from each place on the flight. The main emphasis is on regulation of demand and maximum aircraft loading.
The offer is characterized by varying the quality of services, segmentation of consumers for price sensitivity, effective fuel hedge policies, building tariff system. The effective structure of tariffs is based on the values \u200b\u200bof services, accounting for the necessary costs, maximizing income.
A special role is to maximize income on the network of connecting path segments, as many passengers fly with transfers (in the USA - 40-70% of passengers). This requires a combination of income management systems and computer reservation systems. When applying this system, it is advantageous to give preference to a high-yield passenger in case of having free space, but not to select places from two and more local passengers, each of which takes place only on one segment, since their summable payments can be significantly higher than that of one passenger . As a result of the implementation of the Amunican Airlines income management system, more than $ 1.4 billion has received over three years in the early 1990s.
The efficiency of air transportation increases from the application of code-sheering agreements.
Code Shering (Code-Share) is the sharing of the aircraft of one company by several air carriers. The flight is carried out by one company, while other carriers can sell places in this aircraft in their rates, under your code and flight number. The profitability of the Shering system is obvious. The number of private flights is reduced, but the frequency of flights remains at the expense of partnership. In addition, thanks to Shering code, more convenient docks appear in case of transfers through the hub nodular airport.
Aviation companies also use overbu-king strategy in order to reduce losses from unloaded aircraft due to non-appearance on passengers. Later they are presented companies to return money.
The overbooking strategy is to make more tickets to sell more than the places in the plane, based on the fact that some passengers will not fly by this aircraft. (Overbooking passengers more than tickets.)
If more passengers come to landing than places in the cabin, the company sends a passenger to the near flight, and if it is delayed by sending time - provides compensation in the form of a service complex (meal, place in hotel, cash compensation).
Finally, the efficacy of air transportation increases significantly when creating global air carriers alliances. Until the 90s of the XX century. Leading national airlines performed on the world market independently, without entering into partnerships with airlines from other countries. However, growing integration processes and the desire of air carriers to increase the volume and reduce the cost of transportation more and more often lead to the creation of alliances, active cooperation and cooperation between world transport companies. Consolidation allows you to get rid of excessive competition, optimize the route network, organizational structure of the company, strengthen its position in the market. Currently, the most famous are the global alliances1 Star Alliance, Sky Team and One World.
Star Alliance ("Star Alliance") was formed in 1997 and transported about 500 million passengers per year. It unites 24 airlines, 55 basic (nodal) airports located in the main regions of the world: in Europe - 22, APP - 17, North America - 14, in Africa - 2.
Sky Team ("Heavenly Team") was founded in 2000 and transported 462 million passengers. In its composition, 11 full members (including Aeroflot) from 12 countries, 19 basic (nodal) airports: in Europe - 7, in North America - 5, APP - 4, Latin America - 2, in Africa - 1.
One World ("One World") was established in 1999 and transported about 330 million passengers per year. It combines 10 airlines from 14 countries, has 24 basic (nodal) airports: in Europe - 7, APP - 7, North America - 4, Latin America - 5, in the Middle East - 1.
All three alliances are represented by US airlines (6), China (4), Spain (3); And in two alliances - the United Kingdom (2), Finland (2), Japan (2), South Korea (2) and Mexico (2).
Analysis of global air carriers alliances allows you to allocate the following general principles of their construction:
1. The leadership of large companies based in the largest hub airports of the main regions of the world market.
2. Conclusion among the participants of the Alliance of Arrangement Agreements, about Code Shering, on the mutual recognition of transportation documentation (interline), on the prophetic tariffs, etc.
3. Ensuring high and unified safety standards (IOSA) and service quality.
4. Using unified programs for promoting frequent flying travelers.
5. Application of advanced aviation technologies (mixed transportation, e-ticket, self-registration kiosks, baggage radio frequency identification).
6. Using global distribution systems (Sabre, Amadeus, Galileo, Worldspan, etc.) and the main sale channel passenger traffic - agency network. As global practice shows, airlines are implemented themselves to 20-25% of their transportation, and 75-80% of tickets are sold through the network of agents for the sale of transportation. In the United States in the computer booking market, Sabre leads, in Europe - Galileo and Amadeus, in Russia - Sitaacb Gabriel.
7. Coordinated commercial and tariff policy, coordination of the route network and regular schedule, high degree of financial independence of airlines.
8. Reduction of costs through the sharing of own (rented) passenger airlinals (salons), providing on a mutual basis of ground service and airport services.
In addition, it is envisaged to diversify the main production activities, the sale of paid services, the creation of a management company for the operational coordination of the activities of the participants.
Russian airline market
Russia's share in the global volume of passenger air transport is 2.4% (122.5 billion pass.-km). The level of aviation communication is characterized by data on the number of proposed passenger in one resident in one year. In the USA, it is 3 passenger per year (the population of 300 million people), in China - 0.3 places a year (by 1.3 billion people), in India - 0.1 passenger (for 1.1 billion people), in Russia, each of 140 million people are offered 0.4 passenger.According to the results of 2008, there were 175 airlines in Russia, and according to the results of 2009, their number decreased to 165. The number of served passengers amounted to 45 million 107 thousand people in 2009. The first place on the passenger turnover and the number of passengers on the domestic and international lines is "Aeroflot". He transported 8.76 million people in 2010, and the percentage of employment chairs amounted to 69.5%.
The next place occupies Transaero - 5 million people and 81.5%, respectively. Other leading airlines - "Globus" and Airlines - transported 5.6 million passengers.
International air transportation is carried out in the face of a tough competitive struggle. In recent years, the number of international carriers that have come to the Russian market has increased. Flights to Moscow Emirates, Thai Airways, Etihad, Niki, United, Singapur Airlines, etc. opened flights to Moscow.
From the Russian side actually the only significant player on international Airlines Aeroflot remains. Other international carriers - Transaero, Siberia, Utair - do not always have the opportunity to work on attractive routes. One of the reasons for this is bilateral intergovernmental agreements regulating flights between Russia and other states. They limit the possibility of most Russian companies to enter international aircraft. Without the opportunity to work independently in international directions, Russian airlines actually transmit their passengers from regional flights to foreign companies.
Russian airlines to compensate for their losses, sign agreements with foreign airlines that give them the opportunity to sell transfer transportation on special tariffs, issuing a single ticket to their segment of transportation and on the flight of the partner airlines. However, they cannot be equal to the dialogue with foreign airlines due to the inability to independently go on the line of transport.
Measures to solve problems air transport Are: renewal of aircraft park, airport development, preparation of highly qualified specialists. It is also an increase in flight safety, flight personnel insurance against accident and air carrier liability insurance to third parties.
Air Transport Market Overview
Overview of the global air market……………………….……….…..…. 3 Description of Western airlines…………………………..………..…....… 4 Overview of world airports…………………………………………………….…….... 8 Trends in the Russian air transportation market…………………….… 10 Trends and features of Russian aircraft….….The main indicators of the work of civil aviation of RussiaFor 2004 (Regular and irregular transportation)….………….. 14
Description of leading Russian airlines…………………..…. 16 CIS COUNTRIES………………………………………………………………………………..…….…Description of the situation in the "Business - Aviation" segment………….….. 25 Airports of Russia.………………………………………………………………………….… 2511. FUEL……………………………………………………………………………………………..…. 28
12. Russian air park……………………………………….. 29
13. Estimation of the need for new types of Sun…………………. 31
14. Description of consumers………………………………………………………………….. 35
Objectives of the study
The main purpose of the study is to obtain reliable information on modern trends in the airline market to assess the investment attractiveness of the industry.
Information sources
International Council of Airports (Airports Council International)
Airbus (Date Global Market Forecast, GMF)
BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP (BCG)
CAPITAL RESERCH GROUP.
Solomon Smith Barney.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Association of Business Aviation (Hell)
Transport - Clearing Chamber
TNS / Gallup Media
Comcon - Media
Federal Agency of Air Services
Main Control Department of the President of the Russian Federation
Statistical authorities (Rosstatagenty, regional branches of statistics)
Media (sectoral and specialized magazines, newspapers)
Chambers of Commerce and Industry and Business Promotion Organization (Reports, Research, Address Information)
Airbus A319 / A320 / 321, A300-600
48 (21 together with Aeroflot)
Airbus A318 / A320 / 321
Austrian Airlines.
28 (14 together with Aeroflot)
Airbus A321, Fokker 70
20 (7 together with Aeroflot)
Germania Express.
Boeing 767, Airbus A320
MD-80, Boeing 737
14 (7 together with Aeroflot)
Airline | Weekly flights to Russia | Russian cities in which flights are running |
|
Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Perm, Samara, Ufa, Rostov-on-Don |
|||
62 (21 by code-Shering with Aeroflot) | Moscow, Saint Petersburg |
||
Austrian Airlines. | 39 (14 from Moscow by Sheri On Code with Aeroflot) | Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar |
|
Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, Samara |
|||
Moscow, Saint Petersburg |
|||
25 (7 by code-Shering with "Aeroflot") | Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad |
||
Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg |
|||
Moscow, Saint Petersburg |
|||
Germania Express. |
Lufthansa. (LH)
From January to December 2004, airlines included in the Lufthansa Group transported 50.9 million passengers, which is 12% more than 2003. The volume of suggested facilities increased by 13.4%. The volume of sales facilities increased by 14.7%, for the first time exceeding the mark of 100 billion PCM. As a result, the coefficient of loading the chairs increased by 0.9% and amounted to 74.0%.
The increase in passenger traffic on Russian routes in 2004 amounted to more than 10% compared with the previous year. In 2004, passenger traffic amounted to 820 thousand passes.
The most uploaded routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg remain loaded - the percentage of passenger seats is an average of 70%. In May lasting year, Lufthansa added Rostov-on-Don and Ufa to its schedule, and in the fall, Flights from Dusseldorf to Moscow resumed.
From regional directions, Samara has shown the greatest increase in passenger traffic (here the number of frequencies has been increased from three to seven per week) and Ekaterinburg.
The stronger side is an extensive network of routes around the world and a convenient docking system. Passengers from Russia will deliver to Frankfurt am Main or Munich, co-airports from which they can get almost anywhere in the world. The company serves Russian directions independently, without Code-Charing agreements with some of the Russian carriers.
Air France.
In the winter schedule, Air France makes 48 flights a week from Moscow (at the same time 21 frequency is carried out in collaboration with Aeroflot). Air France also makes two daily flights to St. Petersburg.
Austrian Airlines.
Austrian company performs 28 weekly flights to Moscow (14 of them - under the Cod-Charing Treaty with Aeroflot, on the aircraft of the Russian carrier), occupying third Place in both ratings. The company has a rather strong position in the transport market in Russia: it makes 39 weekly flights to four Russian cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar). The routes to Rostov and Krasnodar Austrian exploits 50-seater Bombardier CRJ, and on routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg, depending on demand, puts Fokker 70, Airbus A320 and sometimes - MD-87.
In 2004, the company achieved an increase in passenger traffic on routes to Russia by 28% compared with 2003. The greatest increase was given to the Moscow direction and the route to Rostov-on-Don (it was opened only at the end of 2003 and last year "unwound "). In the structure of passenger traffic on routes from Russia, the ratio of Russians and foreigners is 50:50. At the same time, approximately half of them use Vienna as a transfer unit, continuing his trip to Austrian flights and its partners in the Austrian Airlines Group and alliance Star. Alliance.
Swiss (21 frequency)
The Swiss company is occupied 4 place in the Russian market. In 2004, she did not open a single new route and did not increase the frequency on any of the already serviced destinations. The company will not increase its presence in the Russian market in 2005. SWISS fulfills flights only to Moscow, therefore, in the ranking drawn up by the total number of frequencies to Russia, the Swiss carrier takes only the eighth place.
In 2004, the employment percentage of chairs on Geneva-Moscow routes (one daily flight) and Zurich-Moscow (two flights a day) slightly increased compared with 2003 and amounted to 65%. If you evaluate the loading of the business class salons, then this indicator ranges from 30 to 80%. The number of Russians in the structure of the passenger traffic in the Moscow direction is 80% during all-Russian holidays and school holidays and 50% in the usual, "non-spike", time.
CSA. Czech Airlines.
Czech company occupies 5 Place in the ranking in Moscow and the fourth - in the consolidated table in Russia. In the winter schedule, this airline is flying to Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and Samara.
Germania Express.
The company specializing in low tariffs in March 2004 increased the number of flights from Germany to Moscow from 9 to 15 per week. In the ATO ranking this airline takes sixth A place in the number of flights performed from Moscow, and the tenth - for the total number of flights to Russia. In 2005, Germania plans to increase its presence in the Russian market.
Today, the airline flies from the Moscow Domodedovo to Berlin, Munich and Düsseldorf, but, in 2005, the carrier will connect two more German cities with Moscow with its routes.
British Airways. (BA)
The company takes in both ratings seventh Lock. Last year, the company also turned his attention to Russian regions by opening the flight to Ekaterinburg. In addition, last summer the company has increased the number of frequencies on the route London-Saint Petersburg (making this flight daily). As for the Moscow direction, here in 2004 nothing has changed - its 14 BA flights still serves on Airbus A320 and Boeing 767 aircraft. In 2004, the volume of passenger transportation of the airline between Russia and the United Kingland grew by 10-12% (In the previous year, the corresponding growth rate was 7-8%). During this time, BA transported about 275 thousand passes. in directions to Russia. In 2005, the airline does not plan to open new routes.
Alitalia.
The company is occupied eighth Place in the ranking in Moscow and the ninth in Russia. Flights only to Moscow and St. Petersburg, having a total of 20 frequencies per week. For the year, no change in its work in Russia did not happen.
SAS SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES SYSTEM
The airline of Scandinavia countries also works exclusively on routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg. On its lines, the company operates McDonnell Douglas MD-80 and Boeing 737 aircraft. For the year, there was no significant change in its work - with its 14 frequencies from Moscow and 12 from the northern capital, the company holds ninth Place in the Moscow ranking and fifth in the All-Russian.
Tenth Place in Moscow and the sixth in Russia. The company independently performs on aircraft Boeing 737 daily evening flight to Moscow, and also sells tickets for Morning flights Aeroflot to Warsaw under the Code Shering Treaty. The Polish airline, in addition, flights to St. Petersburg (five weekly) and to Kaliningrad (so far six flights, but with the transition to the summer schedule, LOT expects to enter the seventh frequency).
Emirates Airlines.
In 2004, the airline noted a significant increase in income from transportation in the Russian direction. The airline has achieved the growth of passenger traffic by 5-10% and increase sales in Russia by 30%. Loading the segment "First" and "Business Classes" - 65-70%. "In 2004, there was an increase in premium tariffs from $ 2.1 thousand, to 2.5 thousand dollars in 2004. Today Each second Emirates client on routes from Moscow uses Dubai as a transformation point. In 2004, on flights to Singapore, Mauritius, Maldives and Bangkok E on the aircraft of the company Emirates, 150-200 Russian passengers were recruited per month.
SN Brussels Airlines.
The airline continues to expand its presence in the East European Air Transport Market.
Flights on the route Brussels - Moscow - Brussels will be performed 5 times a week on airbus A319 aircraft. Brussels - St. Petersburg - Brussels will be performed 2 times a week on Avro RJ 85 aircraft.
For transit passengers from Russia, a convenient flight schedule provides direct docks with almost all European flights SN BRUSSELS AIRLINES. At 90% of the airline directions, business class passengers are provided with comfortable waiting rooms (Business Class Lounges).
The staff of the company is more than 1950 people. SN Brussels Airlines makes more than 285 flights per day, tying Brussels with 54 European and 14 African cities, and also offers 1 daily direct flight from Brussels to Chicago and then 22 destinations in the United States. In May 2004, the company opens daily direct flights on Brussels - New York - Brussels. The modern Fleet SN Brussels Airlines consists of 38 aircraft providing for business and economic classes and appropriate comfort and safety standards. According to the official AEA statistics, SN BruSsels Airlines airlines in 2003 ranked 3rd for punctuality among European air carriers after Luxair and Tarom. Punctuality amounted to 92%. The airline SN BRUSSELS AIRLINES belongs to private investors. Chairman of the Board of Directors - Rob Kuijpers. President - Peter Davies.
Two companies have agreed on the merger - French Air France. and Netherlands KLM.. As a result of this association, the largest airline in Europe will arise. In the future, the KLM and Air France Union can be enhanced by the Italian airline Alitalia.that has already announced that it is going to start negotiations on accession. If you fold the number of passengers and flying kilometers from three airlines, then according to this indicator, the trio can come close to American Airlines. - The largest air carrier in the world.
Both Air France, and KLM, which created the alliance transported passengers more than all civil aviation of Russia, and the connection effort gives them additional opportunities - and to optimize the use of the aircraft fleet, and to optimize the geography of routes. Russian companiesAnd first of all "Aeroflot" received a strongest competitor.
The growth of passenger traffic carriers of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region amounted to 24.8 and 20.5%, respectively.
Prospects for subsequent years are not as rainbow: an unrestrained increase in the cost of fuel will limit the growth rate of passenger traffic in the world of approximately six percent per year for the period until 2008
Overview of world airports
In the coming years, nine superhabs are formed - three for each of the regions of the basing the largest airlines World. As candidates - London, Frankfurt and Paris in Europe; Chicago, Dallas (Fort Worth) and Atlanta in the USA; Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong in Asia.
Such a forecast taking into account the locations of the leading members of the three largest world air carriers alliances: ONEWORLD, SkyTeam and Star Alliance. During the crisis, the yg caused by terrorist acts, these alliances accounted for 55% of the global volume of passenger traffic, and their cumulative losses amounted to $ 20.4 billion.
The success of airports is directly related to service carriers. If you take the 50 largest airports in the world, then more than 75% of them one carrier accounts for over 40% of the attacks and landings. In some cases, this indicator reaches 80%.
During a sharp reduction in traffic volumes in the enterprise. The nodal ports of the United States, closing the list of the 25 largest, lost 12.8%, and the ranking leaders are only 6.3% of their transportation.
The market situation indicates that the passengers are not ready to pay extra money for the convenience during transplantation. This leads to such changes in the schedule of flights of nodal airports, which implemented American Airlines in Fort Worth (Dallas) and recently began to introduce Delta in Hartsfield (Atlanta). Passengers are much more willing to go to the loss of time if carriers offer more low prices on tickets. At the same time, the airline is able to more flexibly form their schedule.
In connection with the removal of daily peaks, another question arises: how many hubs need? One way to survive their survival is specialization in any direction. So, for example, Iberia's base airport in Madrid became the main for its flights to South America instead of more expensive airport services in Miami. Austrian Airlines sees a perspective in organizing flights from Vienna's nodular airport to the countries of Eastern Europe.
Reducing the number of hubs is a key factor in conditioning the need to operate the high capacity aircraft. It is such aircraft should be used for flights between airports formed as a result of concentration.
In the United States, the volume of international transportation between non-priest airports is reduced annually by an average of 4.9%, and between the nodal - it grows by 6.7%.
Passenger traffic of the largest airports in the world in 2004
A place | City (airport code) | Total pass. | Change (in% by 2003) |
Atlanta (ATL) | |||
Chicago (ORD) | |||
London (LHR) | |||
Tokyo (HND) | |||
Los Angeles (LAX) | |||
Dallas / "Fort Worth" (DFW) | |||
Frankfurt am Main (FRA) | |||
Paris (CDG) | |||
Amsterdam (AMS) | |||
Denver (DEN) | |||
Phoenix (PHX) | |||
Las Vegas (LAS) | |||
Madrid (MAD) | |||
Houston (IAH) | |||
Minneapolis / Saint-Paul (MSP) | |||
Detroit (DTW) | |||
New York (JFK) | |||
Bangkok (BKK) | |||
London (LGW) | |||
Miami (MIA) | |||
Newark (EWR) | |||
San Francisco (SFO) | |||
Orlando (MCO) | |||
Hong Kong (HKG) | |||
Seattle (SEA) | |||
Tokyo (NRT) | |||
Sydney (SYD) | |||
Toronto (YYZ) | |||
Philadelphia (PHL) | |||
Note. The table indicates the total number of arrivals sent and transit passengers. |
Movement of aircraft through the largest airports in the world in 2004
A place | City (airport code) | Total | Change (in% by 2003) |
Chicago (ORD) | |||
Atlanta (ATL) | |||
DALLAS/<ФОРТ-УОРТ> (DFW) | |||
Los Angeles (LAX) | |||
Phoenix (PHX) | |||
Paris (CDG) | |||
Minneapolis /<СЕНТ-ПОЛ> (MSP) | |||
Cincinnati /<ХЕВРОН> (CVG) | |||
Las Vegas (LAS) | |||
Denver (DEN) | |||
Detroit (DTW) | |||
Houston (IAH) | |||
London (LHR) | |||
Van Nujis (VNY) | |||
Frankfurt am Main (FRA) | |||
Philadelphia (PHL) | |||
Charlotte (CLT) | |||
Miami (MIA) | |||
Amsterdam (AMS) | |||
Newark (EWR) | |||
Memphis (MEM) | |||
Salt Lake City (SLC) | |||
Phoenix (DVT) | |||
Sanford (SFB) | |||
Madrid (MAD) | |||
Saint Louis (STL) | |||
New York (LGA) | |||
Boston (BOS) | |||
Toronto (YYZ) | |||
Pittsburgh (Pit) | |||
Note. Under the movement of aircraft means the total number of takeoffs and landings. |
In early October 2004, the European Branch of the International Council of Airports (ACI) summed up the work of European airports for August 2004. The average growth of passenger traffic compared with August 2003 amounted to 4.9%. Maximum growth rates demonstrated small airports. So, in group 1 (over 25 million passes. Per year) growth was 3.4%, in group 2 (10-25 million) - 4.8%, in group 3 (5-10 million) - 5.7% , and in group 4 (up to 5 million) - 7.9%.
The tendency of the advanced growth of the airports of Group 4 is observed throughout the three year old months. In particular, in July, passenger traffic across airports of this group increased by 11.1% compared with July 2003, and in June, this figure was 10%.
Leaders and leaders in the growth rate of the number of passengers serviced are also named. In Group 1, this is: Roman "Fiumicino" (7.1%), Madrid "Barajas" (6.2%) and Amsterdam "Skiphol" (5.1%). In a group, airports of Munich (14.4%), Vienna (14.0%) and London Stansted (9.4%). In Group 3, the highest indicator at the Moscow Domodedovo (25.2%), Prague airports (22.7%) and Stuttgart (14.4%). In group 4 leading air harbor Girona (62.7%), Riga (56.3%) and Vilnius (44%).
As the main reason for the rapid growth of small airports, they call the attraction of airlines-without excesses. Perhaps the most characteristic example of Girona Airport, located relatively close to Barcelona and popular mediterranean resorts Catalonia.
Trends of the Russian Air Transport Market
Forecast of economic growth
Volume of transportation of civil aviation airlines
Passenger traffic development
Air transport performs about a third of the volume of traffic in the country today.
The volume of passenger traffic over the past 10 years has decreased by 2.5 times (from 88 million people to 34), and the number of air carriers increased 3 times.
The last four years, the volume of air transportation has steadily grew - in 2001. by 15%, in 2002 by 8%, in 2003 by 9% and in 2004 by 15%
The concentration of passenger traffic in Moscow (66% of the total flights) and St. Petersburg. The number of interregional flights is reduced.
Russia has an excess number of international airports (72 airports from 486 existing). At the same time, only 28 airports correspond to ICAO II and II.
The average aircraft tariff is 1.23 times higher than the average salary in the Russian Federation. For comparison: in 1990. The average rate was 12% of the average wage.
In 2004 The services of the air transport addressed 3% Country population.
Starting since 2001, the growth of tariffs for airlocks by air lines Russian Federation It is 10-12% per year, in 2004 - 11.2%, which does not exceed the level of inflation in the Russian Federation
88% of the total air transportation is performed by 24 airlines from 210 existing.
8 leading airports of the country (Moscow "Sheremetyevo", "Domodedovo", "Vnukovo", St. Petersburg "Pulkovo", Ekaterinburg "Koltsovo", Novosibirsk "Tolmachevo", Krasnoyarsk "Emelyanovo" and Sochi "Adler") account for more than 60% of all Air transportation.
The share of international transport is 48% on the passenger market.
At the same time, the share of transportation in developed countries is 16-18% in general passenger traffic.
Over 70% of the vessel's fleet have a service life for more than 10 years. 70% - at the final stage of operation. Most airlines are building their strategy to "seek" the resource of the existing Sun and do not see the prospects for development.
There is a tendency to "cannibalization" - disassembly on spare parts, rearrangement from board on board.
One of the most acute problems remains moral and physical obsolescence of aircraft fleets. By 2010 will be written off 50% operated by Russian carriers of the park. In gg The domestic airflow has released only 27 main airliners. And in 2004, Russian airlines acquired 15 second-hand foreign aircraft and only four new Russian aircraft - three IL-96 and one Tu-204.
Given the write-off of aircraft due to the development of the resource already in 2005, the reducing the park will be 18%. In 2006, a number of leading airlines with a significant network of foreign routes - first of all it is Pulkovo, Siberia and Krasair - will face an acute deficit of modern aircraft, because the old Russian technique has not responded in relative abundance In Western Europe and the United States, environmental requirements and have low performance indicators.
New year gift
For the whole of 2016, December turned out to be the most successful month for Russian airlines. According to the Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviation), in December 2016, the volume of passenger transported increased by 20.3% compared to the same period of 2015.
Note that since October 2016, the number of passengers transported began to increase in the internal communication. However, in November, for the first time in a long time, the volume of passengers rose and on international flights. In December last year, 2.5 million people were delivered in the international direction, which is higher than the same period of 2015 by 29.8%. At the same time, the growth dynamics of traveling inside the country also remained positive - an increase in December amounted to 15.4%, up to 4.2 million people. However, if you evaluate the dynamics for 2016, then, unfortunately, it is necessary to state that the volume of passenger air transportation is lagging behind, even from the level of 2015 by 3.8% and about the exit to the pre-crisis positions in the near future it is not necessary to speak. If there is a positive dynamics in the internal message (+ 7.3%), then a fall continues (-18.6%).
Analysts remind that the decline in transportation began in September 2015. From that moment on, the only month when Rosaviation fixed growth, was February 2016, when passenger traffic rose by 0.9%, up to 5.2 million people, but the experts noted that Russian airlines could help the extra day of the leap year. A record decrease in the passenger traffic in the current year was noted in May - by 14.3%, to 6.89 million people. Then there was a tangible international transportation by 32.9%, up to 2.49 million passengers with a slight increase in passenger traffic on domestic flights by 1.6%, up to 4.4 million people. It is not surprising, as 2 popular international tourist destinations were closed for Russian tourists: Egypt and Turkey. As a result, Russia became the leader of this summer for the sale of tours. Although after a nine-month break from the beginning of September, charter flights were resumed to Turkey, while regular air communication between countries was practically unchanged. Specialists of the tourism industry predicted that until the end of 2016 should not expect a full charter flight. However, the restoration of the charter to Turkish resorts, although it happened at the end of the high season, has a positive effect on both the tour operators and airlines.
The market is shred
Last year for Russian civil aviation was ambiguous. On the one hand, new major bankruptcies did not happen, as happened in 2015 with Transaero, flights did not interrupted with other countries, and even resumed Egypt.
Many airlines on the background of Transaero's departure from the market were able to improve financial results. After annuling the operator's certificate in October 2015, the Aeroflot Group received the permissions and commercial rights of the carrier for the most profitable 56 international destinations from Moscow for the year. Aeroflot himself received 23 directions, increasing the frequency of flights or opening new flights. Another 33th route received subsidiary "Russia" (flights on them began after the transfer of Transaero aircraft). Also, eight tolerances received "Orenburg Airlines" (now
Participated in Russia). Later, the group abandoned the tolerances in 13 directions: from 3 of them - Aeroflot, from 10 - "Russia".
It is not surprising that today the share of five major market players (Aeroflot, Siberia, Russia, UTair, " Ural Airlines") Ground 18.8% and amounted to 67.4% (59.7 million passengers). Among the five airlines-leaders in passenger traffic in 2016 became Aeroflot, which was transported for 12 months of 2016 by 29 million passengers. However, the "Russia" has become a unconditional leader in the growth rate of growth (ranked 3 years of airline rating), which increased passenger traffic by 70.5%. Other air carriers entering the top 5 show a more moderate dynamics: "Siberia" (15.8%), "UTair" (20.1%), "Ural Airlines" (18.8%). One cannot not be noted the only Russian lourogenant, which for the year transported 4.3 million people, which is higher than the period last year by 38.7%. Thus, the Aeroflot Group of Companies, which includes Aeroflot, Russia, Victory and Aurora, made a key positive contribution to the overall dynamics.
The growth of traffic was demonstrated during the year also "Globus" - by 50.2%, Vim-Avi - by 30.2%, Aurora - by 22.4%. All of them are included in the top 15 of the largest air carriers. Note that changes in the composition of air carriers touched not only Russian, but also foreign airlines. So, over the past two years, many foreign air carriers left with russian market (mostly European Lookers Air Berlin, EasyJet, Fly Niki and Estonian Air, as well as Cathay Pacific and - Thai Airways and Delta temporary - Thai Airways and Delta), and others - noticeably reduced traffic (Lufthansa, Finnair, Czech Airlines, Wizzair, Aigle Azur, Emirates, Etihad, El Al).
Additional income
According to Rosaviation, in 2016, the five largest Russian carriers transported 768.7 thousand tons of cargo and mail, which is 3.3% higher than the figure for 12 months of 2015. At the same time, the cargo turnover rose by 25.3%. There are no changes in the top five cargo carriers. The leader is the airline "Airbridgekargo". Despite the fact that the air carrier reduced the volume by only 5.6% of the results of 12 months ago, nevertheless, he delivered 2 times more freights (501.4 thousand tons) than the other four airlines taken together. Aeroflot added 29.9% to 175.5 thousand tons, Siberia - 6.5% (35 thousand T), Volga-Dnepr - by 0.5% (33 thousand tons ), and "UTair" - by 31.8% (24 thousand tons). A number of companies that are not included in the top 5 are also actively positive. So, increased the volume of transportation of goods and mail almost 2.5 times "Russia" - from 8.9 thousand tons to 21.5 thousand tons, "Ural Airlines" - by 43%, up to 20 thousand tons, " Vim-Avia "- 2 times, to 9.3 thousand tons. In general, at the end of last year, the cargo turnover of Russian airlines grew by 20% (in international report by 21.7%, in domestic Russian - by 4.6% ). The volume of transportation of goods and mail remained, one can say at the level of the same period last year (+ 0.6%).
According to industry analysts, many factors affected the volume of passenger and freight air transport. Of course, among them not only the fall in the economy of Russia, but also the compression of the international market. However, one of the decisive factors in the passenger transport segment was the fall in real incomes of the population, which has decreased demand for airfares, as well as the consumption of goods and services.
International Passenger Air Transport Market
For the world aviation industry, 2016 has become quite successful: according to IATA, the growth of passenger traffic in the world compared to 2015 amounted to 5.9%. Passenger traffic on regular flights Rose by 5.7%, to 3.8 billion passengers. The percentage of passenger seats in the global industry, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 80.2%, which is 0.2 percentage points. Below is the result of 2015.
In 2016, transportation in the Middle East region was most dynamically developed. The growth of passenger traffic compared to 2015 was 10.8%.
The second place in terms of growth occupies the market of the Asia-Pacific region, where the passenger turnover increased by 8.9%.
In the European Region, passenger turns rose by 3.8%. The main driver of the European market has become an increase in international transport. This dynamic is due to an increase in transport capacities by 3.8%, as well as reducing rates due to the development of the budget transport segment and reducing the cost of fuel.
The North American market showed an increase in passenger traffic by 3.2%, which is provided with the sustainable economic growth of the United States of America and the positive traffic dynamics in the domestic market.
Industry revenues, according to IATA, decreased by 2.4% compared with the previous year and amounted to $ 701 billion. Traditionally, their main part amounted to income from passenger traffic - 71.9%. The decline in income is associated with the reduction of the costs of airlock, which allowed air carriers to reduce profitable rates without prejudice to profitability.
According to the preliminary estimates of IATA, the net profit of the industry for 2016 is $ 35.6 billion, which is the highest in the industry over the past ten years.
Passenger traffic on regular worldwide flights
Billion people
Billion people "Title \u003d" (! Lang: Dynamics of passenger traffic on regular worldwide flights Billion people"> !}
The growth rate of passenger turnover and limit passenger turnover of the global industry
Note. Minor deviations percentage of changes, intermediate results and outcomes on the charts of this annual report are explained by rounding.Russian passenger air transportation market
In 2016, the total volume of the Russian market, including foreign carriers, decreased by 4.1% compared with 2015 and amounted to 102.8 million passengers. In particular, 88.6 million passengers were transported by flights of Russian airlines, by 3.8% less than a year earlier. Passenger turn russian air carriers It decreased by 5.0% and amounted to 215.6 billion passenger-kilometers (PCM). At the same time, the volume of translucent capacity has decreased by 6.6% to 265.8 billion kilometers chairs (KKM), as a result of which the percentage of passenger seats of Russian airlines increased by 1.4 percentage points, to 81.1%.
In the reporting period, such factors as a decrease in the urgency of the population caused by the weakening of the national currency rate, restrictions on flights to Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine introduced at the end of 2015, and the corresponding decline in sales in the market of outbound tourism.
These factors determined a decline in the tourist (charter) segment. According to the TCP, the volume of charter passenger traffic in 2016 decreased by 27.0% compared with the previous year, including international charter transportation decreased by 39.8%. As a result, the number of passengers transported in international directions (taking into account the transportation performed by foreign airlines), in 2016 decreased by 15.1% compared with 2015 and amounted to 46.4 million people.
The internal transport segment has retained a positive trend: the number of passengers increased by 7.3% compared with the previous year and amounted to 56.4 million people, which is due to the development of domestic tourism, including by reorienting the flow of exit tourism. The average employment of passenger seats on internal airlines amounted to 79.5%, which is 2.9 pp. higher than in 2015.
Passenger traffic on the Russian market (including foreign airlines)
Million people
title \u003d "(! lang: passenger traffic on the Russian market (taking into account foreign airlines) Million people">!}
Source: TKP, Rosaviation
Passenger traffic on the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
Million people
title \u003d "(! lang: passenger traffic on the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines) Million people">!}
Source: Rosaviation
Passenger turnover in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
Billion pkm.
title \u003d "(! lang: passenger turnout in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines) Billion pkm.
!}">
Source: Rosaviation
Marketing passenger traffic in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
Billion kkm
title \u003d "(! lang: marginal passenger traffic in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines) Billion kkm">!}
Source: Rosaviation
Dynamics of the percentage of passenger chairs in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
%
During 2016, the volume of air transportation on the Russian market decreased, but in the fourth quarter the fall paused and passenger traffic rose by 10.6% compared with the previous year. Changing the trend is associated with the effect of a low comparison base, with a weakening of negative factors affecting the development of air transport (including the stabilization of the exchange rate) and the correction of profitable rates in the industry, which, together with the specified exchange rate effect, determined the decline in the ruble cost of the trip for passengers.
The Aeroflot Group is one of the key height drivers of the Russian air transportation market, providing transport accessibility and mobility of the population. Excluding that I found out the positive dynamics of the passenger traffic of the Aeroflot group, the market fell by 12.5% \u200b\u200bcompared with 2015.
Dynamics of growth rates of 1 passenger traffic of Russian and foreign airlines in 2016
Source: TKP, Rosaviation
Dynamics of growth rates of 1 passenger traffic of the Aeroflot group and the Russian market in 2016
Source: TKP, Rosaviation
Source: TKP, Rosaviation
1 compared to the same period of the previous year.The Russian air transportation market is highly conselected - the share of the five largest players accounts for 70.4% of passenger traffic. Aeroflot Group is an unconditional leader in this market. At the end of 2016, the share of the Aeroflot Group amounted to 42.3% of the total transportation in the Russian market, including transportation by foreign airlines (in 2015 - 36.7%). The increase in the market share of the Aeroflot group was observed during the entire reporting period, while the greatest increase was observed in the I and II quarter.
The growth of the market share of the Aeroflot Group is provided with an effective business model and strategy that determined the sustainability of the group to foreign economic and market factors. The growth of the Group's share is also associated with the redistribution of the Share of Transaero Airlines (ceased operational activities in October 2015) and reduce their presence in the Russian market for foreign carriers. An additional impact on the growth of the Aeroflot Group's market share was active in the segment of international transit traffic, primarily between Europe and Asia. Excluding international transit "Pure" market share of the Aeroflot Group in 2016 amounted to 40.0%. The definition of a net market is a more correct mapping of a market share due to the fact that passengers following the points of Europe and Asia with a transplant in Moscow are not related to the Russian market, and the fact of attracting passenger data has a positive economic effect not only for the company, But for the Russian economy as a whole.
The nearest competitors of the Aeroflot Group are the group S7 (12.8%), the UTair group (6.8%), "Ural Airlines" (6.3%). The share of foreign carriers in the Russian market amounted to 13.9%.
Dynamics of the share of the Aeroflot group on the Russian market for passenger traffic taking into account foreign companies
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| International Airlines | 28,4% | 27,0% | 26,1% | 29,3% | 39,4% |
| Domestic airlines | 32,6% | 36,1% | 38,0% | 44,6% | 44,6% |
| Total | 30,0% | 30,5% | 31,0% | 36,8% | 42,3% |
3.1. Worldwide Development Trends
The existing situation and the future of the world air transportation market is associated with the formation of airline alliances based on the range of airports on the basis of which the transportation network is built and which will ensure the growth of transportation, which is based on the airlines to members of the Alliance. Competition in the global air transportation market is the struggle of alliances of airlines and large nodular airports for the capture of perhaps most of the consumer market. In the world, there are now two development trends of air transportation: 1) the Point-to-Point system, which can be seen on the example of the United States, assumes the performance of direct flights between the departure point and the destination; 2) European countries closer to the Hub-and-Spoke scheme (literally and knitting knitting), which is that the passenger flies to the destination is not directly, but with a change in the node airport. At the same time, the schedule must be drawn up so that the passenger can recover as quickly as possible on a docking flight. That is, airports-hubs collect passenger traffic from a large number of cities and redistribute them to docking flights. At the airport-hub, special technology for passenger and baggage processing must also be worked out, providing as a high level of passenger service as possible. These trends impose their imprint on the formation of the policies of leading aircraft enterprises: the American company "Boeing" and the Western European Aircraft Alliance "Airbus". Americans proceed from the fact that the future behind high-speed, highly economical liners of the average passenger capacity, allowing to organize a non-stop air communication between a multitude of world cities, bypassing major airports, as they are often overloaded. Europeans make a bet on the A-380 superliner, carrier with the highest level of comfort more semi-second passengers for the flight. Only the largest airports in the world can take such aircraft, from where the passengers have to get to the final point of travel on aircraft less capacity. Based on these prerequisites, leading aircraft manufacturing companies form lineage of aircraft (Sun). Thus, the company "Boeing" finishes the flight tests to the mass production model 787, capable of transporting from 200 to 300 people to record 16 thousand km. And "Airbus" showed super-proof aircraft A380 airlines, capable of transporting up to 550 people. At the same time, the European manufacturer does not discard the demand for superdasal aircraft, so in the Boeing peak and its 787 models creates a competing A350 aircraft. Expect that middle passenger aircraft liners (on the American model) will fly at any airport, based on the capabilities of airports and the availability of passenger traffic. Most likely, such aircraft will be able to deliver passengers to regional airports, of which passengers will fly to the final paragraph by local airlines or delivered by road (in the conditions of the Russian Federation in the presence of roads). Thus, in both directions of development, the need for nodal airports, the tanks and characteristics of which depend on the passenger traffic and the type of aviation equipment used are preserved. Do not forget that in the presence of an American model in the United States, the world's largest nodal airports-hubs are successfully operating, for example, such as Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, Houston and others with passenger traffic of several dozen million people In the year KAZHO.
3.2. Concepts about the node airport (hub), transit and transfer passengers
Recently, the issue of the possibility and need to create nodal airports in the Russian Federation and the Moscow Aviation Node has been repeatedly discussed in the press and on television screens. Nodal Airport (Hub) is essentially transit and transplant airport. Transportations through the largest foreign hubs are organized on the principle of "hubs" and "spokes". At the beginning, passengers on the main, interregional and intercontinental routes are collected in the hub airport (hub), then these passengers are sent by regional and local routes (knitting) to the end points of the destination, where the main carrier is unprofitable. Aviation statistics take into account two types of transit passengers: direct transit passengers and transfers. The first is the flight passengers doing a temporary stop at the airport, for example, to refuel the passengers carrying them or landing (disembarking). At the same time, the flight number does not change, although the aircraft can be replaced. In this case, the carrier must pay the airport for serving passengers, shutting time at the airport. The transfer passenger is a passenger that makes a transfer from a single airline in this airport to another flight of the same or other airline (Transfer). Such a passenger may have a single shipping document that acts on the entire route, but flight numbers will necessarily differ. For serving this passenger twice: for the flight, which he flew, and the flight, which will fly away. Therefore, from the point of view of the airport economy, one-time stay at the airport of a transfer passenger gives the effect of serving two passengers. And if this is a passenger of international flights, then on the jargon of aviators his name is "a fat passenger." Naturally, at the airport, this is the most desirable passenger, and for attracting it and the same goods there is a tough competition of airports. Transfer passenger, often coming to Moscow from cities Western Europe , USA, Southeast Asia, will inevitably work for the economy of not only the airport, but also cities, using the services of urban infrastructure at the airport and outside it. Together with this is a kind of passenger. Unlike the local one, which will fly to the destination one of its path anyway, the transfer almost always has a choice. Therefore, he will fly to Moscow only if the transplant in Moscow can be made faster and more convenient than at the airports of other cities. The airport business is primarily a rigid competitive struggle for attracting this particular passenger category. The specifics of this competition applies to cities with multiple airports. In this case, the competitiveness of the aircraft in general is determined. Interests of this external competitiveness serves the suppression of internal competition between airistal airports, as it worsens the economic indicators of the aircraft as a whole. As a rule, in this case, airport specialization and management is carried out by the Unified Management Company (London, Paris, New York, Washington, Milan). Unfortunately, the disunity of the airports of MAU does not stimulate the increase in the number of transfers. If, for example, the passenger arrived from Khabarovsk to Domodedovo Airport and he need to fly to Adler from Vnukovo Airport, then this passenger from the moment of arrival is no longer needed Domodedovo Airport and do not need an airport of Vnukovo at the time of the passenger's arrival in Vnukovo. The passenger with his luggage is something. There will be no Domodedovo Airport to take care of the future passenger of Vnukovo airport and vice versa. Therefore, at the lowest possibility, the passenger is trying not to be "transfer", but to use direct flights without transfers. For the same reason, Moscow annually loses its "its" transfer passengers not only in Russia (Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, St. Petersburg, Samara organized direct flights to the cities of the South and West of Russia, the CIS, some cities in Western Europe, bypassing Moscow), but also Transferring "to their and their income Kiev, Tashkent, Helsinki, Warsaw, Prague, Budapest, and others. The situation may change when the aircraft transplantation will be carried out in one airproof in the presence of" connecting "waves of flights and the appropriate baggage processing. For the possibility of assessing the share of transfer air passengers in some major foreign airports and we present some data. The number of transfer passengers at Frankfurt Airports, Amsterdam, Copenhagen is more than 40% of the number of passengers of regular flights, in Brussels and hectrous more than 30%. Despite the disunity in the work of Mau airports in the struggle for the transfer of a passenger in recent years, a certain positive trend has emerged. For example, according to the data presented by Domodedovo Airport, the share of transfer passenger at this airport is constantly increasing. It should be noted that transfer passengers can only be on regular lines as international and internal. The passenger knows in advance what flight and when he must fly further from the airport of transplant, but for this it is necessary to form a node airport with docking waves and an appropriate infrastructure. Transfer passenger, as a rule, has nothing to do with the country of transplant. Service of such a passenger at the airport of transplant is an exported service. The most prosperous in the field of exports of air transport services are the countries of the Middle East. Figure 3.1 shows that based on $ 1 million gross domestic product (GDP) UAE attracts 93.0, and Qatar - 88.4 transfers passengers. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are followed by the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - Singapore and Hong Kong.
Fig.3.1. International transfer passenger traffic for $ 1 million GDP, Pass.
In Europe, these indicators are lower and amount to 10 to 20 passengers. Russia practically does not use this resource. Russia's indicators are 20-30 times less than that of the Asian countries given on the diagram. In a number of countries, the number of international transfer passengers is comparable to local (initial / finite) passengers, and Qatar is the only country in the world in which transfer passengers is larger than the initial / finite. In the UAE, the Netherlands and Singapore on 2 initial / end passengers account for 1 transfer. Russia is inferior in 3-4 times with European countries, serving only 1 transfer, which can be seen in Fig.3.2 on 10 initial / end passengers.
Fig.3.2. International transfer passenger transfers per 100 initial / end passengers, people.
Many countries seek to obtain a stable additional income from transfers. For example, in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong, Dubai, and other cities there are special programs, such as "Singapore Stopover Holidays". Visa requirements are simplified under these programs, these programs include visiting a variety of tourist attractions.
3.3. Requirements for the nodal airport (hub)
The attractiveness of the airport on the role of the nodal is determined by the following factors :? geopolitical position (capital, center of the economic region); ? the development of its infrastructure (flight field, passenger and cargo terminal, transport links, the ATC system); ? capacity and development of the domestic and international transport market; ? The level of service of passengers and goods at the airport. Together with this there are several criteria that determine the airport's readiness to perform the functions of the hub :? The ability to organize the required amount of docks and the absence of restrictions for their growth. In large foreign hubs, the average number of arriving flights from which you can make a convenient transplant transfer to a flying flight, ranges from 50-70 units. per hour (Frankfurt, Amsterdam) to 20-30 units. (Helsinki, Vienna). The task of the hub is the concentration of incoming air transport streams and the redistribution of them on outgoing directions by organizing the so-called "docking waves". ? The capacity of the passenger and cargo terminals and the airport as a whole, the ability to ensure and guarantee in the long run a high level of airlines and air passengers. The airport complex is largely determined by the face of the airport, comfort and level of service of air passengers. Certain requirements are subject to airbroceal complexes of international airports. ? The ability to ensure the transplant time in accordance with the requirements of the carrier and global practice by organizing docking waves and a clear execution of the schedule. The optimal docking time is achieved through the concentration of incoming and outgoing international and internal passenger traffic in a single air-binding complex and the availability of a corresponding baggage processing system. By world practice, the time required for transit transplant At the airport, it is 30-60 minutes (Vienna, Frankfurt, Amsterdam), and when performing customs procedures up to 2-3 hours (USA). The organization of the "nodal" airport is based primarily on creating a special airport service technology aimed at simultaneously receiving the maximum number of passengers with the provision of opportunities to fly to the maximum number of new directions for the minimum time, provided that there is a sufficiently large amount of transportation passengers performing Transplant in this airport, including, including airport quality. ? The possibility of the development of the airport, because without this he has no prospects. The most important at airports is the airfield complex. The airfield area, the quantity and location of the runway, the distance from the airfield to settlements and water bodies, the presence or absence of land reserves for the development of the airfield impose restrictions on the capacity and the possibility of the development of the entire airport. As a rule, nodal airports have two or more independent runways, which makes it possible to more effectively use the ability to increase passenger traffic. With questions of lack of capacity of the runways, the runways have already encountered in a number of basic nodal airports. The construction of new WFP construction is rigidly limited by laws on the environment and the absence of relevant reserved areas. In this situation, the increase in the capacity of other airport objects, such as passenger terminals and others, becomes meaningless. Supported airports such as Heathrow (London), Orly, Charles de Gaulle (Paris), Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Narita (Tokyo), etc. To successfully compete, the throughput of nodular airports must have development reserves and those who have They will be more, most successfully can cope with the growing market needs, capturing its increasing part. Being one of the main zones affecting the safety of flights, the airfield complex is created and operates in accordance with extremely rigid norms. The ICAO standards are regulated by the requirements for the tool landing, the width and length of the runway and the taxiways, the surfaces of the obstacles, ecological safety, etc.? The presence of a bar-forming airline or airline alliance. In most cases, the main carrier company is closely connected with a hub that dominates this airport. The main indicators of its degree of domination at the airport are :? the share of passengers transported by this company, from the total passenger-turn airport for a certain period of time; ? The share of passenger cars of this company from a similar indicator for the airport; Hub Index - the number of connecting flights of this company for a certain period of time. Typical examples of airports with a single dominant company are Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport (Serve 22 companies, however, the share of Delta is about 80%) and London Heathrow Airport (the share of the main carrier - British Airways is about 40%, but the airport serves 83 airlines, most of which are not involved in docks). However, there are examples of airports with multiple dominant airlines. For example, Chicago O "Hare International Airport has 2 main companies with approximately the same shares of passenger transport and comparable Hub Index rates. Another example of the airport of this type is Los Angeles International Airport. According to the consulting firm in the field of airports and aviation (Airport & Aviation Consultants) in 2000 . In the United States, a major hub was considered the airport with a large number of passengers serviced and executed flights (more than 7 million landings, i.e. sending passengers per year) if there are more than two runways, which are usually parallel. For example, Denver has five runways and builds sixth . Washington Dulles - three runways, and now two more are designed. In the USA in 2003, 31 airport was classified as a large hub due to the fact that each of them had more than 1% of landing on the aircraft from the total number of passengers sacrificing in Airplanes in the United States. These airports missed 493,911,466 passengers. This category included such airports as Chicago O "Hare, ATLANTA, L Os Angeles, Dallas-Ft, Worth, etc. Usually, airlines have at their disposal a hub system on tracks and routes that are served by these companies. Habami United Airlines are Washington Dulles, Chicago O "Hare, Denver and San Francisco. Continental uses NEWARK, Cleveland and Houston as hubs. Large hubs have capacious passenger terminals providing the necessary bandwidth, taking into account the docking waves. The dimensions and layout of these terminals are a comprehensive solution and they have alternatives, such as linear terminals, terminals with landing galleries, as well as terminals with adjacent lobby. Airports that are hubs for certain airlines, it is necessary to determine the number of passengers making a transplant, as landing, disembarking and transplanting passengers put forward various requirements for the execution of various functional zones within the terminal and require an appropriate platform area. Requirements for the facilities of the airfield of the airfield at the airport - a hub are defined "on a calculated or critical aircraft". This is a plane that performs or is expected to perform at least 500 VPOs (running operations) for the year. The speed when entering the landing and scope of the wing of the calculated aircraft establishes standards of lateral echelonation, which determine the distances between the work areas, such as runway and parallel RD, WDP and RD width, security strip size. In general, by submitting brief results, you can imagine the airport, which for the next 2-3 dozen years will satisfy the requirements for the nodular airport and will provide the growing volume of air transportation. Such an airport has several (at least two) parallel WHPPs, separated in accordance with the requirements of ICAO, ensuring the possibility of simultaneous, independent fulfillment of them from them. There must be a reserve of Earth to increase, if necessary, the amount of WFP is more than 3. The passenger terminal is located in the middle between the runway and can expand on the modular principle. The terminal fits the motorway, railway branch or subway line. Landing on all types of transport is produced in the building of the airport or on the square in front of it.
3.4. Foreign and domestic studies on Mau development paths and the issue of creating a nodular airport
In 1993-1994 Under the auspices of the American bank "Lemon Brothers", a study was conducted on the promising development of Mau (the project "Airports of Moscow"). In this paper, various options for the integrated functioning of Airports of Mau were considered and the conclusion was concluded that under the conditions of attractiveness for investors, the volume of financing, the capacity of airfields and airspace, the level of service of passengers, an environmental impact and the possibility of development of the most promising is Domodedovo airport. As an optimal, the following flight distribution option was proposed: to Domodedovo Airport - international and domestic passenger transportation, on Sheremetyevo - freight transportation, on Vnukovo - government and business flights, according to Bykovo - gradual cessation of activities. In 1998, on behalf of the European Union, the service department of Schiphol Airport (Amsterdam) was prepared and published a report "Planning of civil aviation development" (financed by the "TACIS program"). Previously, in 1997, the Group of Western Experts of the company "NACO" and specialists of the Association "Airport" of civil aviation, with the assistance of Avianevest, were examined by the 30 most important airports in Russia. A general conclusion in this work regarding the development of the Moscow airport system is a warning: "In the Conditions of the Free Russian Air Transport Market, Moscow Meshopolis must be served by one main node airport with the implementation of the principle of docking international and intercontinental flights, on the one hand, and international and internal, on the other . Naturally, it will take advantage of the necessary bandwidth of the runway and terminals. At the same time, it is recommended to develop a clear policy of choosing and developing a node airport of the Moscow region, which in the next decade must be significant to be modernized. As an integral part of the project, it is necessary to provide transport funds. To this airport. Only such measures can give the Moscow megapolis the opportunity to integrate their nodal airport into a rapidly expanding worldwide airline network. " In addition, the politics of the double node airport, which provides for the simultaneous development of Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo, and even more the more triple - Sheremetyevo - Domodedovo - Vnukovo, will be very unprofitable and can lead to the failure of hopes imposed on it. The choice of the main nodal airport of Moscow should be produced, first of all, based on the bandwidth. Considering the information on the state of the infrastructure and the results of the research, the specialists concluded that the only long-term decision on the choice of the Moscow Megapolis Knowledge Airport should be the choice of Domodedovo, since this airport is able to cope with the bandwidth of the bandwidth and terminals. transformation into a nodal. In 2000-2001 GPI and the Research Institute of Aeroproekt, with the participation of a number of other organizations, completed work entitled "The scheme of integrated development of the Moscow Aviation Knot until 2015" It was assumed to create a nodal airport in Sheremetyevo after the construction of a new airbreak complex, and later the organization of the second node airport in Domodedovo. In 2002, Baltstrakh-M LLC issued an informational and analytical certificate "To the concept of the development of airports of Mau." This paper discusses the location of airports in the airport system, trends in the development of airports of Mau and their competitors. It is noted that the "integrated development scheme of the Moscow node until 2015" It imposes essentially to leave everything as it is, reproving, improving, upgrading the current air passenger service infrastructure. In other words, to get a unique, nowhere else in the world is the principle of operation of a multiported hub, although all world experience suggests that to accept this principle means to put a cross on the future turning one of the airports of Mau to a full-fledged hub. In 2002, ZAO NPO Progresshech commissioned the Ministry of Transport of the Moscow Region, in which the environmental impact of the aircraft on the adjacent territory was given an assessment of the state and identified certain aspects of the development of airports Mau. According to the research results, the following conclusion was made that, in terms of its capabilities, volumes and efficiency of costs and, taking into account the reservation of significant land areas, the largest development perspective for a long period has the Domodedovo airport, where the creation of a node airport in Mau is most appropriate. In the materials "Moscow airports - a look in the future" Information portal "Airport RU - Aviation First-hand" (2005) provides current provisions on the development of the Moscow Aviation Node. It is noted that the concept of hub, i.e. Transit aircraft with a share of transfer passengers measured by tens of percent can be associated with one airport, if it is the only one in the city and with airport complex from several close airports managed by a single company. In the latter case, all airports of such an airclamp work to attract as many transfer passengers as possible in the aircraft as a whole. In this involvement, they do not compete, and complement each other in achieving a common goal. Therefore, the Moscow air transportation unit as a business entity with the agreed commercial policies of the generating airports and the strategy of their development, focused on obtaining the maximum total economic effect, after the collapse of the USSR did not exist. No, now. Mau is a collective definition of the property complex of 4 Moscow airports, each of which survives as it can. And it is necessary to keep in mind always when Mau is compared with London's multi-airlines, Paris, Washington, New York, Rome, Milan. Everyone, without exception, Western airlife has a master and he is alone. This is the company that manages the aircraft or at the same time owns and manages it. The main care of this owner is to attract as much passengers and cargoes and carrying their airlines. The main object of his attention is the users of its services that have a choice that can take advantage of a stranger airport (aircraft) or other versions of transport. If the goal is to become the same node as London, Paris, Frankfurt or Amsterdam, you just need to follow the commercial logic of the airport business. This logic is well known: Moscow airports must develop so that they become more attractive for transfer air passengers than the airports of cities - competitors. Only pulling away from them the most transfers of transfer passengers can be counted on a multiple growth of passenger traffic through Moscow. What should I do for this? The answer to this question will give any passenger, which arrives at the Moscow Airport only for transplanting: do so that I can do in one airport, quickly and without hassle. The easiest, cheaper and fast way to solve it is a concentration of service. more Regular passenger flights, both domestic and international, at one airport and in one terminal. So and only so you can minimize the transfer time of a large number of passengers and their baggage from the flight to flight, do this with maximum amenities for passengers and minimal costs for the transplant organizers. If possible! In Milan, it was possible. Therefore, Milan's municipality in 1998 translated all regular passenger flights from Lenate airport (11 km from Vnukovo) to Milan's airport (Domodedovo 23 km), which has two independent WFPs, located 53 km from Milan. . Cause - Linate Airport had one runway and "noisy", which reduced its transfer quality to a minimum. Therefore, it was left by only charter flights and one regular - Rome - Milan. As a result of this castling, in the following 1999, the growth rate of the total number of passengers of two Milane airports jumped twice. In New York, London, Paris is also impossible to do, because none of the 2nd-3rd airports have been not able to skip the entire flow of passengers alone near these cities. And it is impossible to expand none of them - there is no free territory. Therefore, the municipalities of these cities are doing everything possible to help manage the managers of companies to organize a quick and comfortable transfer of those transfer passengers who have flights arrive and departure are forced at different airports. Moscow has a unique advantage over the multi-airport nodes of the world. It has an airport that can serve its regular passenger transportation, and with the prospect of multiple growth. Such airport is Domodedovo Airport. Running the redistribution of passenger flows between Moscow airports in favor of Domodedovo is a logical process of the concentration of regular passenger traffic in the same airport for this. There is no competitor to him in Mau due to the best transfer potential of this airport. The arrival of each new carrier in Domodedovo enhances the attraction of this airport for the main carriers that are serviced today in Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo. The more flights, domestic and international flights, will be served in Domodedovo, the more and more opportunities will be for an increasing number of transfers passengers to make a transplant to the desired flight At one airport (see Fig.3.3). The faster this process will go, the sooner Moscow will turn into a full-fledged aircraft - a hub.
Fig.3.3. The number of presented directions in the world's leading hubs, units.
The resulting process will be completed when most regular passenger flights in and from Moscow will focus on Domodedovo. The completion date will determine the capacity of the main technological objects of the airport: flight field, passenger terminal, the routes are the city of the airport and the Moscow Airport Internal Affairs Systems.
3.5. Trends in the development of the Moscow Aviation Knot
The following conclusions can be drawn about the development paths of the Moscow Aviation Knot :? The development of the Moscow Aviation Knot will occur as part of the Russian air transport system and in accordance with the trends of world development of air transportation and airport activities. There is a steady tendency to grow passenger traffic by Mau. ? The geopolitical position of Moscow and the Moscow Aviation Knot (the capital of the Russian Federation, the largest transport node of the country and the CIS, the possibility of using airports of Mau by European and domestic carriers during the flights of the Armed Forces from Western Europe to the Far Eastern and South Asian regions, etc.) simply obliges Mau to achieve significant Increasing the number of transit and, especially transfer passengers and high-quality improvement in their airports. ? Further development The Moscow Aviation Node can go one of two ways: a) the transformation of airports of MAU to a single node with the execution of a hub. This is only possible in the case of leadership by all airports MAU by the Unified Management Company and the elimination of their competitive struggle. At the same time, an appropriate transport infrastructure is needed between Airports Mau and the organization of passenger and luggage transport. b) A gradual education in one of the airports of Mau Haba, which seems to be more realistic.
In this case, there is no doubt that you can not enter instructions.
This is a gradual and long process, in which most regular passenger traffic (approximately 60% of Mau), both internal and international ones, will go to the nodal airport. Each of the stages of this process should be formed taking into account the protection of domestic carriers and primarily in the international transport market. At the same time, it is possible to specialize other airports of Mau with redistribution of other types of transportation activities (maintenance of freight transportation, charter flights, business aviation flights, literary flights, etc.). In all likelihood, for the implementation of such a program, it will also require a coordinated management of these processes in a single body, without violating the work of managers operating at airports by providing the airports of the corresponding autonomy. ? With any version of the development of Mau, the issue of improving airport and transport infrastructures, which are directly related to improving the quality of passenger service and cargo handling. At one of the conferences in Federal Agency Air transport on the topic: "Tasks and Sphere of Favt's activities" was noted that the hub is not an aircraft, but technology. A hub can be only the airport that will ensure the docking of flights from different directions to the lowest short periods of time and with maximum amenities for the passenger. In Europe, for example, such airports have long been English Heathrow and German Frankfurt am Main. Hub is a kind of transshipment base that does not require a passenger to move to another airport, nor additional registration on the flight and reissue of baggage. All this is laid in one technological chain from the departure point to the point of arrival. According to the consulting company INFORMOST: "The hub is a good system, it really works in some regions of the world. But for the introduction of it, first of all, it is impossible to forget that the hub is not an airport as such, but transport system, including the airport and airline. "Each of the components of the system must fulfill its tasks. Over the airport - ensuring the connection of flights and servicing transit passengers. The airline must have an extensive route network and a special type of schedule that allows you to poison flights from different points. As for The Moscow Aviation Knot, he is preparing the most difficult role of a multiphort hub, the implementation of which is conjugaten with a number of difficult challenges, including transport international transportation, the temporary transplant parameter, the organization of docking, luggage delivery, etc. Almost this means that Vnukovo airports , Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo continue to compete with each other, selecting passengers and reduce the geographical, strategic and economic advantages of Moscow in the struggle for a transfer passenger with other nodal airports of the world, i.e. to the detriment of MAU as a whole. When creating favorable conditions, the number of transfers Passengers At MVL and introduced, it can be at approximate calculations up to 15% by 2020, and each such passenger brings a double benefit of the airport. As a positive example, you can bring the regional airport of FRG Munich, close to the volume of airline airport (23 million Passage) to our largest airports, where the number of transfer passengers is 27%, although Munich's geographical and political capabilities are incomparably less than that of Moscow. The higher the level of development, the higher the speed of information sharing and the speed of technical progress. Currently, the highest speed of movement sufficiently suggests only aviation transportation (see Fig.3.4).
Fig.3.4. The dependence of aviation mobility on the degree of development of the state
In turn, air transport of countries with modern node airports with developed route network, becomes a catalyst for economic growth. According to ICAO, about 4.5% of world GDP can be attributed to air transport and the effect affecting the production in the aircraft industry itself, or the sphere of consumer goods and services. At the same time, on average, US $ 100 produced product in air transport, initiate $ 325. Additional demand in other industries. According to the ICAO leadership in the economy of the airports of 2006, when assessing investments in the development of airports, it is necessary to take into account the multiplicative effect of the economic impact of improving the airport production performance on the economic development of the city, region, countries. The main indicator of economic development is gross domestic product. The influence of the development of air transport to the economy of the country, which is not directly related to the development of the air transport industry, has received the name in Western literature - a catalytic economic effect. There are a number of works devoted to the assessment of the development of air transport to the country's economy. Most researchers come to the conclusion about the presence of a positive connection between the development of the air transport industry and the level of economic activity in the country in the long term. You can select a number of channels of influence of the development of air transport (including increase in airport capacity) on the country's GDP (see Fig. 3.5). The channels of influence can be divided into two groups: factors affecting aggregated demand and on aggregated offer. The impact of the development of transport infrastructure on GDP by aggregated demand occurs through an increase in export / import expenditures as a result of tributary / outflow of tourists and changes in trade. Moreover, aviation is used mainly to transport high-tech goods (pharmaceutical preparations, computer equipment, etc.) as international experience shows, the quality of transport infrastructure has a significant impact on international trade. First, low infrastructure quality increases total transport costs. Although accurate and realistic calculations are difficult, there are a number of studies where attempts are being made to do so. For example, the negative impact of the lack of infrastructure on domestic income can be assessed through the fact that improving infrastructure in the services sector reduces losses by 154 million or 4% of the global GNP (internal national product) 1.
Fig.3.5. Economic Catalytic Effect of Air Transport Development on GDP
Secondly, public infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, has an impact on trade through a comparative advantage. Yapl and Golub (Yeaple & Golub) 2 quantitatively assessed the degree in which the infrastructure affects international differences in general factor performance (TFP) existing on the sectoral level. Thus, the provision of road infrastructure is a significant factor in productivity and country production specialization. In the work of the experts of the World Trade Organization Nordas and Peermartini (HK NordeS and R.Piermartini) "Infrastructure and Trade" (Infrastructure and Trade) 3 on the basis of the gravitational estimate of the gravitational model, the impact of infrastructure quality (air and maritime, land transport, as well as telecommunications and the necessary time for customs cleaners of goods) to the aggregate trade volume between the two countries in general and in separate industries (automotive and textile industries, production finished clothes). The study proves that the quality of infrastructure is an important factor in the effectiveness of trading activities. The best infrastructure for marine, terrestrial and air transport is associated with a large volume of trading. The quality of ports has the most significant impact on trade. Trade with an exported country that has doubled the number of airports in the future leads to an increase in bilateral trade on 15%.
From the sentence gDP growth rates are divided into rates due to an increase in the volume of production factors used - usually this increase in capital volume (ie investments) and labor (employment) - and the pace that cannot be explained by the observed changes in the use of factors4. Therefore, it is believed that the inexplicable part of GDP growth is an increase in total factor performance (obtaining a larger issue with the same amounts of resources entrusted) or is an indicator of technical progress in its broad definition.
The identity of the system of accounting for economic growth factors is written as:
where GY is the growth of real GDP, GK is the growth of fixed assets, and GL - employment growth, "a" - the growth of aggregate factor capacity, "B" and "C" - the share of capital and labor in income.
The development of transport infrastructure has an impact on all three components.
Investments
The influence of public investment on growth rates is different from the influence of private5. Accordingly, the following modification is introduced into the function (1):
where GP is the growth rate of public investment
According to American economists estimates, 1% increase in public investment leads to an increase in labor productivity by 0.15% - 0.3%. And the corresponding change in both private and public investment is 0.35%. However, the return on public investment depends on the direction of their use. There are a number of American works devoted to separately research on the impact on the economic development of the airport power increase in the region. On average, the analysis of panel data on the US states showed that, with other things being equal, an increase in the amount of runway increases by 1% GRP by 0.9% (if the WFP length is less than 3 km). An analysis conducted by David Cunning and Marianna Fei in relation to the transport infrastructure in 96 countries of the world revealed the following pattern: the higher the level of investment (and the total gained capital) in the transport infrastructure sector, the higher the national performance of public capital performance 7. The transport network is often One of the key factors affecting investment solutions for private companies. More A. Marshal wrote that when deciding on the opening of production in a particular country of the company, incl. Focus on the minimization of their transportation costs: the transportation of goods, people and ideas. Despite the development of information technologies, personal meetings continue to play a significant role in the business, especially at the initial stages of cooperation 8. Modern econometric studies9 on the countries of the European Union showed that the estimates of Oxford Economic Forecasting and Eurocontrol Experimental Center Increasing the use of air transport in Europe by 10% will result in 10% In the long term, an increase in the average annual growth rates of investments by 1.6%, with other things being equal. As a result, performance, i.e. GDP per capita will grow by 0.6% (see Fig.3.6).
Fig. 3.6. The relationship between the volume of investment and the use of air transport in% to GDP (24 countries of the European Union)
Source: Economic Catalytic Effects of Air Transport in Europe // Oxford Economic Forecasting
Employment.
Direct business chat has more effectiveness, power of emotional impact and suggestion than indirect, socio-psychological mechanisms are directly operating. In the world, every fourth person, traveling on a trip - near and far, short-term and long-term - does it for official need. This is the so-called Business Travel or business tourism. Business tourism is one of the most important conditions for a successful business. According to foreign experts by 2020, the number of international business trips will increase three times - from 564 million to 1.6 billion per year. At the same time, the turnover of this sector will increase 5 times - from 400 billion US dollars to 2.0 trillion. According to the American organization "Round Tourism Tourism", an increase in turnover in this area by one billion dollars leads to the creation of 100 thousand new jobs.
Cumulative productivity of factors .
Increased transport services, incl. Aviation, increases the size of the markets on which companies operate10. What in turn leads to savings from the scale and more efficient distribution of resources. The development of aviation transport allows companies to rationalize the distribution of production. Good air links improve the access of companies to the market, which strengthens the competition between companies and reduces market monopolization. It forces the company to use more modern technologies. Moreover, dynamic effects may occur, if the improvement of air transport services will lead to an increase in the profitability of investments in other sectors and will increase the costs of companies on innovation, or create effective communication and network. Foreign investments are a key channel to attract new technologies to the country. In general, all of the above factors increase the aggregate productivity of factors (Fig. 3.7).
Fig.3.7. The use of air transport and the total productivity of factors (24 countries of the European Union).
Thus, thanks to the multiplicative action of indirect effects, by different estimates, 10%, the growth of air transport services leads to an increase in GDP in economically developed countries from 0.6% to 1.9% 12.
4. Forecast air transportation in Mau until 2030
4.1. general information
Transportation forecast is made by Progresshech LLC using previously performed works :? "Justification of the investment in the project" Development of the Moscow Aviation Knot. Construction of a complex of a new runway (WDP-3) of the Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Region. LLC "Progressteh", 2007; ? "Master Plan for the Development of Sheremetyevo International Airport for the period up to 2030." Scott & Wilson, 2008; ? "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo Airport. Objects of federal property" (1st line of construction), OOO "Progresstehe", 2008; And also, taking into account the comments of the FSU "Glavgosexpertiza of Russia" on the work of "Justification of the Investments on the Project" Development of the Moscow Aviation Knot. Construction of a complex of a new runway (WDP-3) of the Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow region and for the work "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo airport. Objects of federal property. "The work used data of the statistical administration of the Moscow region, the transport and clearing chamber of the Russian Federation, Sheremetyevo International Airports and Domodedovo.
4.2. Economic development of Russia
The development of the Russian economy at the end of 2008 and in 2009 was a sign of adaptation to the conditions of an acute economic crisis caused by both external (crisis of the global economy, the fall in demand and prices for raw materials) and internal factors (exit of the economy from investment overheating) and not It was uniform. A sharp deterioration in foreign economic conditions, the fall in exports, outflow of capital and the suspension of a bank loan led to a significant reduction in investment activity and a decline in industry in the first half of 2009. By mid-2009, the economic decline in Russia suspended and from June to December, a consistent growth of the Russian economy was observed. In general, for 2009, GDP decreased by 7.9 percent. The GDP decline in 2009 is associated, to a large extent, with an investment demand collapse. Investments in fixed assets decreased by 17.0 percent. The collapse of the existing investment system in the construction industry led to a lack of financing and freezing of most planned projects. One of the main trends in 2009 was the coagulation of construction work at the facilities of the production destination. One of the main factors of the fracture of the dynamics of the decline and the transition to the restoration growth was to improve the economic situation in the main regions of the world and the effect of stimulating fiscal measures, which began to manifest itself to the second half of the year.
Tab 4.4. The growth rates of the main indicators of the economy (seasonality is excluded) * in quarters, in% of the previous period
Tab 4.4.2. The main indicators of the development of the Russian economy in 2007-2009
Fig.4.1. The dynamics of gross domestic product with the exception of * seasonal and calendar factors (2) and without exception (1), January 1995 - 100%
A large-scale decline in production is the main trend of the year. The production decline forced the company to reduce costs: 2009 was the year of mass layoffs. According to the results of a selective survey of the Russian population on employment issues, the average annual number of unemployed, calculated on the ILO methodology, amounted to 6.3 million people (8.4% of the economically active population), which is 1.5 million more than in 2008. The greatest level of unemployment was observed in February and March (respectively 9.4% and 9.2%), by the middle of the year, as the economy restored and revitalizing measures to support employment, the situation in the labor market began to improve. The number of officially registered unemployed in 2009 increased by 684 thousand people and amounted to 2.1 million people (2.8% of the economically active population). There is a high incomplete employment rate. According to the monitoring of the situation in the labor market in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation held by the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia, as of December 30, 2009, the total number of employees who are in a simple version of the administration, working part-time, as well as employees who were provided with a vacation on the initiative administration, exceeded 1.6 million people. The growth of real disposable monetary incomes of the population in 2009 amounted to 1.9 percent. At the same time, real wages decreased by 2.8 percent. Figure 4.2 shows the growth rates of significant indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the period from 1996 to 2009.
Fig.4.2. The growth rates of significant indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation
4.3. Development programs of the Russian economy
In order to take into account the consequences of the impact of the global economic crisis on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the near future, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation was developed "a draft of scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the basic parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the planning period 2012 and 2013. " The calculation of the indicators in the forecast was carried out taking into account the trends in the development of the global economy and foreign economic conjuncture, as well as the results of the development of the Russian economy in January-April 2010. In general, in early 2010, the trend of the economy began, which began from the middle of last year. In the first quarter of 2010, GDP has somewhat slowed down as a result of weak investment demand, but in April, growth acceleration was observed in most macroeconomic indicators. In annual terms of GDP in the first quarter of 2010, according to Rosstat's preliminary assessment, increased by 2.9% against falling by 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2009, and in January-April, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, GDP increased by 3, 5% to the relevant period last year, the parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development for 2010-2013 were developed in two main options - options 1B and 2B, which are based on hypotheses with respect to the sustainable restoration of the global economy provided by the expected growth of US economies, China, Southeast Economics Asia and India, and moderate increase in oil prices URALS to $ 78-79 per barrel in 2012-2013. The conservative version 1b is designed in the conservation of risks of low investment demand, weak consumer demand, while maintaining wages of the budget sector employees at the 2009 level, as well as slow restoration of credit activity. An annual growth rate of the economy can be 2.6-3.1 percent. The moderately optimistic option 2B reflects the faster recovery of the economy as a result of the most complete realization of its growth potential on the basis of increasing business efficiency, bank lending growth, as well as stimulating economic growth and modernization. In 2011-2013, a more active state policy aimed at the development of transport infrastructure, science and technology, housing and housing and communal services, for regional development, and a restrained electricity tariff regulation policy is being implemented. Along with the rationalization of the system of budgetary institutions, after 2010, the wage indexing is expected in the budget sector in proportion to inflation. GDP growth in 2010-2013 is projected at 3.4-4.2 percent. Optionally, options with different dynamics of oil prices and the growth rate of the global economy are worked out. Option 1A Designed in conditions of reducing the price of oil URALS in 2012-2013 to 68-62 US dollars per barrel due to the slowdown in the growth of the global economy to 2.7-3.3 percent. The option takes into account the risks associated both at the lower rates of growth in the demand for hydrocarbons and risks associated with an increase in oil supply by Iraq, increasing shale gas production and an increase in gas sales, which can lead to a leading drop in gas prices relative to other commodities. The adaptation of the Russian economy to this pessimistic scenario of the development of the global economy will require a significant reduction in the ruble exchange rate and will be associated with a slowdown in growth rates. Option 2c reflects the more optimistic hypothesis of the world economy out of the crisis, a higher level of energy demand and the restoration of the positive increase in oil prices to $ 85 in 2012 and up to $ 90 per barrel in 2013. In 2012, GDP goes to a new maximum: it is expected that in 2013, GDP by 6.8% will exceed the pre-crisis level of 2008. GDP in 2010 is projected at 3.1-4%, in 2011-2012 - 2.6-3.4%, in 2013 - 3.1-4.2 percent. The achievement of the upper boundary corresponds to the conditions of option 2b offered as the main budget calculations. In 2010, domestic demand in real terms will increase by 6.8%, primarily due to the restoration of production reserves, as well as through the growth of consumption supported by the growth of real incomes of the population. In 2011-2013, the growth of domestic demand will slow down due to the exhaustion of reducing growth in stocks and will be 5-6% per year, while the role of investment demand increases. It is assumed that the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia exhausted their influence in the short term and since 2014, Russia will be released at the development pace laid down in the long-term development program. Economic forecasts used in this work are considered conservative. This reflects both the long-term prospects for forecasts and significant risks inherent in the Russian economy. The Russian economy is highly dependent on oil, gas and other natural resources. At the same time, it is relatively weakly diversified, which means that any negative trends in these industries will immediately affect the promising economic growth. In 2009, the volume of regular passenger transportation of airlines of Member States of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decreased by 3.1% compared with 2008
4.4. Passenger traffic forecast for Mau
A feature of the forecast for the airports of the Moscow Aviation Knot is the fact that these airports account for about 45% of the total passenger traffic of the Russian Federation. Moreover, this tendency remains over the past five years. The development of the transportation forecast in Mau until 2030 was carried out taking into account the crisis that struck the financial and economic system of the world and including Russia, was carried out using the Materials of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation and the leading economists of Russia. At the first stage, transportation forecasting was carried out in general by the aircraft using the same approaches and models as for individual independent airports. When developing a forecast for the development of the industry, the following materials were used in the work :? "Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2030", approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 22, 2008 No. 1734-P; ? "The concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation", MART, October 2007; ? "The main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020-2030" - an application to the "Concept of the Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation", MERT, August 2008; ? "Project of scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the planning period of 2012 and 2013", Mayor, June 2010. . ? ICAO (Manual of Air Traffic Forecasting, Second Edition, 8991-AT / 722/2, 1985 The economic situation in Russia on the eve of the crisis was characterized by economists as follows. Modern Russia depends very much on the export of raw materials. Moreover, this dependence has entered very deeply into the economy structure itself . This is clearly visible on the example of the dollar's course relative to the ruble. In the spring of 2003, the dollar rate in Russia went down. However, the cause of this phenomenon was not the devaluation of the dollar in world markets, and the excess of dollars from Russian exporters of raw materials, which are forced to sell them on the open market. This is It suggests that today in Russia there is no problem of investment "binding" of money outside the fuel and energy and commodity complex. In other words, Russia did not just have developed its economy due to the lack of an investment resource - it has already lost opportunities to develop investment Process in the conditions of free money. Such a situation in case of crisis Inevitably leads to a severe decline and a very significant drop in the standard of living and an increase in unemployment. The system of budget formation in our country is also built exclusively on the operation of the commodity sector with its export capabilities. The level of taxation of manufacturers is too high so that they can legally develop their business, which leads to restrictions in the investment process and the transition to gray work schemes that exclude taxes. In addition, the refusal of the country's government from the implementation of any strategic plans for economic development and the complete lack of responsibility for the work performed (or on the contrary, the work imposed) has led to an incredible increase in corruption. Under these conditions, Russia entered into a financial and economic crisis that struck the entire global economy. The duration and consequences of its generally on the global economic system and, in particular, in Russia, so far economists and analysts do not give a certain response. In this regard, the mayor of the Russian Federation developed two main options for the development of the Russian economy for the next three years from 2010 to 2013, which formed the basis for the further possible development of the socio-economic situation in the country. The first option (1b), as mentioned above, reflects the tendency of the socio-economic development of Russia as a conservative option. It provides for the preservation of low oil prices in 2010-2013 at 75-79 US dollars per barrel in accordance with the parameters embedded in budgetary benchmarks. In 2010-2013, GDP growth is predicted by 3.1%, which will not fully compensate for the decline in 2009. The second option (2b) is a moderately optimistic script for the development of the Russian economy as a more likely option of the forecast, which takes into account the more favorable foreign economic conjuncture. In 2010, it is expected to stabilize oil prices at 75 US dollars per barrel and then their increase to 78-79 dollars per barrel in 2011-2013. The predicted GDP growth rate for three years will be 3.4-4.2%, which will allow in 2013 to exceed the pre-crisis level. The development of the forecast before 2030 was the following parcels. The modern economic model existed due to the continued expansion of markets and the "dollar zone". The current crisis is associated, including with the physical exhaustion of the ability to expand these territories. The development of the American economy took place due to its pumping cheap credit funds (US total debt (state, corporate, private) at the beginning of 2009 exceeds 50 trillion. dollars). To prevent excessive money supply to the real sector and its "utilization", financial bubbles of mortgages and the stock market were invented. The development of the global economic crisis will lead over several years to a partial or complete change of the existing system of economic relations and loss of the US dollar function of a single measure of value - EMC. One of the possible consequences of the economic crisis will be the division of a single global economic space into a number of autonomous economic zones. At the same time, the cost of producing any products in Russia due to the geographical situation is significantly higher than in any other country of the world (with rare exceptions). As a result, any goods produced in Russia, including agricultural, when compared with foreign counterparts, lose the criterion of revenue / cost ratio. Consequently, domestic goods are less effective, i.e. In the same investment, an investor brings less profit than foreign analogues. The smaller efficiency of the domestic economy determines the same thing that the influx of foreign capital into the country is carried out not by investing in the creation and development of the domestic industry, but by providing loans, since interest on loans provided is fixed and independent of the beneficiary's profitability. As a result of the collapse of the industry and a huge leakage from the country of production and financial capital in the post-Soviet time, the exit from the crisis without a sharp reduction in living standards is impossible. Therefore, in the future (until 2030), two development options are possible, which are presented in Table 4.3.
Tab 4.3. Rangers of development
Option A can lead to a deterioration in the situation in the Russian economy, so it is excluded from consideration. Thus, the government is based on its activities to be guided by the V. option. Details of this option, taking into account the short-term forecast, presented by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in two versions, will be considered when developing the forecast of Mau transport and Sheremetyevo airports, Domodedovo and Vnukovo for a long time until 2030. No other options for the development of the economic situation, except for the two listed, we have no export income in terms of falling export income. At the moment there are all signs of what the version of V. is being implemented, it is still difficult to assess, it is being realized or is a simple coincidence, but the result from these actions is noticeable now - reducing effective demand, decline in import, stop and reduce production, growth Unemployment. Based on this, it is possible to formulate strategies that the main market participants will be followed: the population, business, power, until the start of fundamental economic reforms in the event of the further implementation of this option. Population: will reduce consumption by reducing costs for the purchase of long-term goods; Business :? will begin to turn and preserve the production, reducing to a minimum costs of maintenance; ? If possible, it will go to the release of more cheap and simple goods of folk consumption; ? In mechanical engineering, the orientation will be on the release of cheap multifunctional agricultural machinery; ? In the automotive, the orientation will be on the production of cheap high passable cars. State authorities to maximize economic situation should solve several fundamental issues :? develop a viable mechanism for lending to domestic production; ? To relieve social tensions to ensure the employment of citizens temporarily lost operations due to the stopping of production or making the minimum income, preferably without mass migration and without a significant increase in the expenditure part of the state budget; ? Solve the issue of financing the deficit of the state budget without foreign currency borrowing. Based on the strategies listed above, the behavior of the basic personnel of the market, you can draw the following assumptions regarding the development trends of the macro-phasers that determine the overall socio-economic situation in society. The dynamics of the development of GDP and real disposable incomes of the population, reflecting the standard of living of the population, will be quite moderate without any take-offs due to the extremely difficult situation in the economy at the existing moment in time. However, as the economy improves, GDP and real incomes of the population will be observed. The presented growth rates on GDP and real incomes are not well coordinated with the previously developed strategy management and legal initiatives of the Strategy and Legal Initiatives of CJSC. Depending on the Economic Development Economic Economic Economy, the GDP GDP Initial Interval from 3.1 to 2020 6.7%, and the growth of real disposable income is from 3.5 to 6.5%. The passenger traffic forecast is made on the basis of the ICAO technique. The GDP gradient leading coefficient to passenger flow adopted 1,79 in accordance with the recommendations on ICAO air transport prediction, taking into account the realities of time In accordance with the above methodology, three options for the development of passenger traffic in MAU have been developed until 2030. Below, Table 4.4 presents 3 options for the transportation of Mau (pessimistic, medium and optimistic).
Tab 4.4. Forecast passenger traffic Mau, million people
Forecast of freight traffic has not been performed, since the TRU trucks are at all about 5% of the airports of MAU and do not significantly affect their bandwidth.
Rules for visiting concerts in the Cathedral
Culinary City Day on Red Presnya
Catania Beaches Canara - La Gomera
Independent training flights
Tracking. What is it? What is trekking? All products, tags